Cautious Optimism as CPI Aligns with Expectations, Mixed Signals in Europe, and Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets | MarketReader Minute

The U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in July, aligning with market expectations and slightly up from June's increase of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the core CPI increased by 3.2%, marking its lowest level since April 2021.

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Wednesday, August 14

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: US 2Y Treasury Bond-0.1%

The U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in July, aligning with market expectations and slightly up from June's increase of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the core CPI increased by 3.2%, marking its lowest level since April 2021.

In Europe, industrial production in the Euro Area unexpectedly fell by 0.1% month-over-month in June against forecasts for a rise of 0.5%. This decline follows a revised drop of -0.9% recorded in May and highlights ongoing challenges within key sectors such as non-durable consumer goods.

Meanwhile, UK inflation data showed that producer prices grew at a slower rate than anticipated while overall inflation edged higher to reach an annual rate of 2.2% for July—below forecasted levels but still above recent months' figures due to rising costs across various categories including housing utilities and clothing.


XLP [-0.8%]
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) experienced a decline of 0.3% post-market on Tuesday. Key holdings contributed to this downturn, with Costco (COST) dropping slightly, followed by Coca-Cola (KO) and Estée Lauder (EL), which also saw minor declines. Target (TGT) and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) recorded small losses as well. Collectively, these performances from the top contributors reflect a broader trend of negative returns within the ETF's holdings during this session.

NZD/USD [-1.1%]
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has dropped significantly following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's unexpected decision to reduce its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. This action was taken in response to weak domestic economic growth and declining inflation, resulting in immediate downward pressure on the NZD/USD exchange rate as traders adjusted their positions. Additionally, ongoing global market dynamics influenced by U.S. inflation data are also affecting sentiment towards the NZD.

CAH |+7.2%|+1.9B
Cardinal Health Inc reported strong fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.84, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.73. Revenue increased by 12% year-over-year to 59.87 billion, exceeding expectations of 58.64 billion. The pharmaceutical segment was a key driver, generating 55.6 billion in revenue due to growth in brand and specialty pharmaceuticals. Following these results, the company raised its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 7.55 to 7.70, up from a preliminary outlook of at least 7.50. Cardinal Health also increased its share repurchase expectations for fiscal year 2025 by 250 million, totaling 750 million. The overall outlook for fiscal year 2025 anticipates revenue growth of 10% to 12%.

K | +7.5% | +2.0B
Mars has announced an acquisition of Kellanova for $83.50 per share in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $30 billion, with a total enterprise value of $35.9 billion, including assumed net leverage. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2025. Following the announcement, Kellanova's shares increased significantly, trading at $74.50. Mars will finance the acquisition through cash on hand and new debt. However, the deal may face antitrust scrutiny due to overlapping product lines and significant market shares of both companies.

FNV |-4.4%|-1.0B
Franco-Nevada Corp reported quarterly adjusted earnings of 0.75 per share for the quarter ended in June, falling short of the analyst consensus estimate of 0.82. This marks a significant decline from the prior year's earnings per share of 0.95. Revenue also dropped, coming in at 260.1 million, below the expected 265.52 million. The company disclosed a notable decrease in gold equivalent ounce sales, reporting 110,264 ounces, down significantly from previous periods. Furthermore, Franco-Nevada anticipates that its total gold equivalent ounce sales for 2024 will be at the lower end of its guidance range of 480,000 to 540,000 due to reduced contributions from diversified assets and revised commodity price assumptions. The stock has moved down 4.2% since Tuesday, underperforming its sector peers.

UBS |+3.6% | +3.5B
UBS Group AG reported strong Q2 2024 results, with earnings per share of 0.34, well above the expected 0.12. Total revenues reached 11.9 billion, surpassing the anticipated 11.3 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25%. Underlying profit before tax rose to 2.06 billion from 891 million a year earlier. The bank's CET1 capital ratio was reported at 14.9%, indicating robust liquidity. Despite projecting a pre-tax loss of 1 billion in non-core and legacy units for the latter half of 2024, UBS expects integration-related expenses of approximately 1.1 billion in Q3, partially offset by 0.6 billion from purchase accounting effects. CEO Sergio Ermotti highlighted significant progress post-acquisition and a commitment to sustainable growth. The stock has increased by 3.2% in pre-market trading, coinciding with positive social media sentiment following the earnings announcement and broader market movements reflected in a rise in the Russell 2000 Index.

XP |+6.8% | +732.1M
XP Inc. has announced its second-quarter 2024 results, reporting a GAAP EPS of 0.39, which falls significantly short of the consensus estimate of 1.91, representing a substantial miss. Sales for the quarter reached 809.69 million, also missing analyst expectations of 4.14 billion by a considerable margin. Nonetheless, this sales figure reflects a year-over-year increase from 716.96 million reported in the same quarter last year. Following the release of these financial results, XP shares are trading higher, despite the earnings and revenue shortfalls.

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