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Wednesday, September 3

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) -1.9%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) +7.0%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) +6.8%. Apple Inc (AAPL) +3.7%. 

Recent developments in the global bond markets have significantly influenced investor sentiment, leading to a flight toward safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar. The sell-off in long-dated bonds has raised concerns over fiscal sustainability across major economies, particularly as yields surged amid fears of rising government debt levels. This environment contributed to an increase in demand for gold, which reached new all-time highs.

In economic data releases today, mortgage applications in the United States fell by 1.2% for three consecutive weeks despite lower interest rates on mortgages—indicating weakening consumer confidence amidst ongoing housing market challenges. Additionally, Eurozone services PMI showed slower growth at 50.5 compared to July's four-month high of 51; however, job creation within that sector hit its highest level since April.

Looking ahead this week is critical labor market data from the U.S., with Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due Friday expected to provide insights into employment trends and influence Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding potential rate cuts later this month—a topic currently under scrutiny given recent political pressures surrounding Fed independence and monetary policy direction.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [-1.1%]
Global markets are experiencing heightened volatility due to rising bond yields and inflation concerns, negatively impacting sentiment. Crude oil prices have fallen as fears of supply disruptions ease following recent geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. This decline is reflected in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which has recorded a daily return of approximately -1.39%. Among the ETF's holdings, ExxonMobil and Chevron both posted losses, contributing to the overall decline. Phillips 66 was downgraded from Buy to Neutral with a revised price target, which may influence market sentiment. Additionally, EOG Resources had its price target lowered while maintaining an Overweight rating. Recent API reports indicated significant changes in U.S. crude oil stock levels, leading to increased volatility in XLE. Brent crude oil prices also declined, further aligning with the movement in the energy sector.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-2.0%]
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) is experiencing a price decline of 2% in pre-market trading, now positioned at $64.24. This movement coincides with reports that OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, potentially reversing output cuts of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents about 1.6% of global demand. Additionally, Brent crude oil prices have also fallen, trading at $68.74, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine that threaten supply chains. Heightened U.S. tariffs on Indian goods are contributing to concerns regarding slowing trade and diminishing global demand for commodities, further influencing the negative sentiment in the market.

GOOGL | +6.7% | +186.0B
Alphabet Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Alphabet Inc shares surged following a U.S. federal judge's ruling that the company will not have to divest its Chrome web browser or Android operating system amid an antitrust lawsuit from the Department of Justice. This decision, deemed overreaching by Judge Amit Mehta, allows Google to retain key assets, fostering positive market sentiment. In after-hours trading, Alphabet's Class A shares rose significantly, while Class C shares also increased. Concurrently, Barclays raised its price target for Alphabet to 250, while Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan adjusted theirs to 260, all maintaining favorable ratings. Additionally, social media highlighted an 8% jump in GOOGL after the court ruling, which emphasized that divesting these assets would negatively affect consumers and partners. Overall, these developments have contributed to the notable upward movement in Alphabet's stock price.

DLTR | -5.1% | -1.2B
Dollar Tree Inc | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Dollar Tree Inc. reported a notable increase in its second-quarter performance, with net income rising significantly compared to the previous year. The company announced adjusted earnings per share of 77 cents, exceeding analyst expectations, alongside a revenue increase of 12% to $4.57 billion, surpassing consensus estimates. Comparable store sales grew by 6.5%, aided by increased traffic and ticket size. Despite these strong results, Dollar Tree cautioned that adjusted earnings for the upcoming third quarter are expected to be similar to the previous year due to rising tariff-related costs. Consequently, the company's stock price declined during pre-market trading. Additionally, Dollar Tree raised its full-year sales guidance to between $19.3 billion and $19.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.32 to $5.72.

M | +12.2% | +511.9M
Macy's Inc | Broadline Retail
Macy's Inc. reported its second-quarter 2025 results, with net sales reaching $4.812 billion, surpassing estimates of $4.764 billion. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $0.41, significantly above the consensus estimate of $0.18. Comparable sales increased by 0.8% on an owned basis and 1.9% when including licensed and marketplace sales. Following these results, Macy's raised its full-year 2025 guidance, now expecting net sales between $21.15 billion and $21.45 billion and adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $2.05. Social media discussions highlighted the positive reception of the earnings report, noting total revenue for the quarter at $5 billion, exceeding expectations of $4.9 billion, with a gross margin reported at 39.7%, slightly above the anticipated 39.5%. The stock was noted to be trading at $13.49, reflecting an increase following these announcements.

FTI | +4.6% | +770.5M
TechnipFMC PLC | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
TechnipFMC PLC will replace Skechers USA in the S&P MidCap 400, effective prior to the opening of trading on September 12. This announcement, made approximately 14 hours ago, marks a significant transition for TechnipFMC as it enters a more prominent index. The change follows the impending acquisition of Skechers by 3G Capital, which is expected to finalize soon, pending final conditions. This shift in index representation may enhance TechnipFMC's visibility among market participants. Additionally, conversations on social media have highlighted TechnipFMC's focus alongside other companies, including GE Vernova and Boeing, in the context of recent market movements.

DLTR | -5.1% | -1.2B
Dollar Tree Inc | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Dollar Tree Inc. reported a notable increase in its second-quarter performance, with net income rising significantly compared to the previous year. The company announced adjusted earnings per share of 77 cents, exceeding analyst expectations, alongside a revenue increase of 12% to $4.57 billion, surpassing consensus estimates. Comparable store sales grew by 6.5%, aided by increased traffic and ticket size. Despite these strong results, Dollar Tree cautioned that adjusted earnings for the upcoming third quarter are expected to be similar to the previous year due to rising tariff-related costs. Consequently, the company's stock price declined during pre-market trading. Additionally, Dollar Tree raised its full-year sales guidance to between $19.3 billion and $19.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.32 to $5.72.

Macy's Inc (M) [+11.8%, +491.3M]
Broadline Retail
Macy's Inc reported its second quarter 2025 results, revealing net sales of $4.812 billion, exceeding estimates of $4.764 billion. The company achieved a net income of $87 million and an adjusted EPS of $0.41, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.18. Comparable sales increased by 0.8% on an owned basis and 1.9% on a comparable owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis. Following these results, Macy's raised its fiscal year 2025 guidance for adjusted EPS to a range of $1.70 to $2.05 and net sales to between $21.15 billion and $21.45 billion. Social media discussions highlighted the adjusted EPS of 41 cents against an estimated 18 cents, with total revenue reaching $5.00 billion compared to an estimate of $4.9 billion. The gross margin was reported at 39.7%, slightly above the anticipated 39.5%.

AAPL | +3.7% | +134.2B
Apple Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple Inc shares have experienced a notable increase following a favorable ruling in the Google antitrust case, which allows Google to continue making payments to Apple for preloading its products. Analysts view this as a significant win for Apple, safeguarding approximately $25 billion in annual revenue from traffic acquisition payments. Morgan Stanley described the ruling as nearly ideal, enabling Apple to negotiate terms annually and potentially introduce new search options. Additionally, Bank of America raised its price target for Apple, citing increased confidence in service growth due to the ruling. Concurrently, social media discussions highlighted the potential $100 price increase for the upcoming iPhone 17 Pro, influenced by production challenges in India. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment remains positive, contributing to Apple's recent stock performance within the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals sector.

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