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Thursday, August 7

Noteworthy macro moves today: Ethereum +4.4%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) -7.6%. Apple Inc (AAPL) +2.8%. 

The Bank of England (BoE) has cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the lowest level since March 2023. This decision reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth, with four committee members voting against the cut, indicating a cautious approach toward future monetary policy adjustments.

In the United States, initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly to 226,000 for the last week of July compared to market expectations of an increase only up to 221,000. Additionally, unit labor costs in Q2 increased slightly more than anticipated at a rate of 1.6%, which may signal pressures on wage growth amid signs pointing toward a slowing economy.

Germany's industrial production fell sharply by 1.9% month-over-month in June—worse than expected—and this decline was driven primarily by significant contractions across various sectors including machinery and pharmaceuticals. Despite these challenges in manufacturing output data from Germany showed that exports rebounded modestly during June as they grew by approximately 0.8%.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+2.0%]
President Trump's recent announcement of a proposed 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, while exempting companies that commit to U.S. manufacturing, has spurred significant premarket gains for semiconductor stocks, including the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). This announcement, made approximately 1 hour and 44 minutes ago, has positively influenced major chip manufacturers such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel. Additionally, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) was granted an exemption due to its investment commitments in Arizona, further enhancing sentiment around semiconductor investments. The top contributors to SMH's performance include NVIDIA, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Broadcom. Notably, Applied Materials is investing over $200 million in a new manufacturing facility in Chandler, Arizona, which will create jobs and support U.S. chip manufacturing capabilities.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+4.4%]
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has experienced a notable increase of approximately 4.4% since Wednesday. This rise coincides with President Trump's executive order allowing cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, to be included in 401(k) retirement plans. Additionally, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen by 1.76%, reflecting improved sentiment as major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown significant gains. On social media, discussions highlight that Ethereum's daily transactions have reached a new high, surpassing 2021 levels, driven by stablecoins and ETH treasuries. Furthermore, BlackRock's acquisition of $33 million worth of ETH underscores institutional interest in the cryptocurrency. Conversations also reference bullish sentiment, with projections of substantial capital inflow into the Ethereum ecosystem due to various financial instruments and mandates for on-chain movement.

DUOL | +26.5% | +5.0B
Duolingo Inc | Education Services
Duolingo Inc. reported strong second-quarter results, with revenue reaching 252.3 million, surpassing estimates of 240.7 million, and marking a 41% year-over-year increase. Earnings per share came in at 0.91, exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.58. Daily active users rose to 47.7 million, while monthly active users totaled 128.3 million. The company provided an optimistic outlook for Q3, guiding revenue between 257 million and 261 million, above the estimate of 253 million. Duolingo also announced the acquisition of NextBeat, a London-based music gaming startup, which aims to enhance its music course offerings and marks its first official presence in the UK. Following these announcements, Duolingo's stock experienced a notable price increase of approximately 26.5%.

ABNB | -7.7% | -5.9B
Airbnb Inc | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Airbnb Inc. reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, revealing earnings per share of 1.03, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.94, and sales of 3.096 billion, exceeding expectations of 3.031 billion. The company announced a new share repurchase program valued at 6 billion. Despite these strong results, CFO Ellie Mertz cautioned about potential deceleration in growth rates for the latter half of the year due to challenging year-over-year comparisons. Following the earnings call, the stock experienced a significant decline, dropping by approximately 6%. Key metrics included gross booking value of 23.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of 1.04 billion with a margin of 34%. Revenue guidance for Q3 FY2025 was set between 4.0 billion and 4.1 billion.

LLY | -7.6% | -49.7B
Eli Lilly and Co | Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly and Co's shares have dropped significantly following the release of its Q2 financial results and disappointing data from its Phase 3 trial of the oral obesity drug orforglipron. The company reported a net income of $5.66 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $6.31, both exceeding expectations. Despite this, the stock fell sharply due to the orforglipron trial results, which showed an average weight loss of only 12.4% over 72 weeks, below investor expectations. Treatment discontinuation rates were notably high at 24.4% for the highest dose, raising concerns about the drug's efficacy compared to competitors. Social media discussions highlighted these concerns, noting that Eli Lilly's stock is now down 32% from its year-ago high, marking an 18-month low. The company also raised its fiscal 2025 revenue outlook to between $60 billion and $62 billion from a previous forecast of $58 billion to $61 billion.

DDOG | +9.6% | +4.8B
Datadog Inc | Application Software
Datadog Inc reported its second-quarter financial results, with sales of 826.760 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 790.973 million by 4.52%. This represents a year-over-year increase of 28.12% from the previous year's 645.279 million. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 was 0.46, surpassing the estimate of 0.42. Datadog raised its guidance for Q3, projecting adjusted EPS of 0.44 to 0.46 and sales between 847 million and 851 million, both above analyst estimates. For fiscal year 2025, the adjusted EPS guidance increased to a range of 1.80 to 1.83, along with an upward revision of sales outlook to 3.312 billion to 3.322 billion, compared to the prior estimate of 3.236 billion. The company also reported a GAAP operating loss of 36 million, with a GAAP operating margin of -4%, while non-GAAP operating income was 164 million, reflecting a non-GAAP operating margin of 20%.

HUBS | +7.4% | +2.0B
HubSpot Inc | Application Software
HubSpot Inc reported strong Q2 financial results, achieving an adjusted EPS of 2.19, exceeding the estimate of 2.12 by 3.2%. Sales reached 760.866 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of 739.813 million by 2.85%. The company provided robust guidance for Q3, projecting adjusted EPS between 2.56 and 2.58 and revenue between 785 million and 787 million, both above analyst expectations. Additionally, HubSpot raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 9.47 to 9.53 and sales guidance to 3.080 billion to 3.088 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17%. Customer growth was notable, increasing 18% year-over-year, with total customers reaching 267,982. Following these results, HubSpot's stock experienced a significant increase of 7.4%, coinciding with positive sentiment observed on social media regarding its financial performance and outlook.

FTNT | -21.3% | -12.3B
Fortinet Inc | Systems Software
Fortinet Inc. has experienced a significant decline, dropping over 21% following multiple analyst downgrades. Scotiabank reduced its price target from 115 to 85, while Morgan Stanley and KeyBanc adjusted their ratings to Equal Weight and Sector Weight, respectively, with targets of 78 and 90. Despite reporting Q2 earnings that surpassed expectations, with revenue at 1.63 billion and EPS at 0.64, the stock fell sharply due to cautious guidance and a Q3 revenue forecast that missed market estimates amid economic uncertainty. The company's anticipated EPS for Q3 is between 0.62 and 0.64, which has further contributed to negative sentiment. Additionally, Fortinet raised its annual billings forecast while facing pressures from industry consolidation, notably from competitors like Palo Alto Networks.

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