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Thursday, May 8

Noteworthy macro moves today: Ethereum +8.5%. Oil (WTI) +2.4%. Bitcoin +2.4%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) +2.6%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) +2.6%. Meta Platforms Inc (META) +1.8%. 

The Bank of England has cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, a decision that reflects ongoing disinflation progress and concerns over slowing GDP growth in the UK, which is now forecasted at 1% for this year. The vote was notably close, with two members advocating for no change, indicating some internal division on future monetary policy direction amidst rising global uncertainties due to US tariffs.

In addition to domestic developments, market sentiment is heavily influenced by trade discussions between the United States and the United Kingdom. President Trump announced an upcoming press conference where he will unveil details about a major trade deal expected later today; however, analysts caution that it may only outline preliminary agreements rather than concrete terms.

Meanwhile, economic data from Germany shows robust industrial production growth of 3% month-over-month in March alongside an increase in exports leading to a significant rise in their trade surplus. This positive performance contrasts with declining imports and suggests resilience within key sectors despite broader geopolitical tensions affecting overall European markets.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+8.1%]
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has seen a significant price increase of over 8% since Wednesday. A dormant ICO whale has recently sold 5,200 ETH, valued at approximately $9.54 million, as part of a broader trend of liquidations since April 17, totaling 21,700 ETH worth about $38.9 million. This whale retains a remaining balance of 8,300 ETH, valued at around $15.28 million. Concurrently, approximately 12,000 ETH were sold on May 7, leading to net outflows of $21.8 million from ETH ETFs. Additionally, ETH gas fees have surged from $0.01 to $1.00, indicating increased transaction volume. In another notable development, the Ethereum Foundation disbursed $32.65 million in Q1 2025 to support community and technological initiatives. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is poised to announce a major trade deal with the UK, coinciding with a 25 basis point cut by the Bank of England to 4.25%.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [+0.9%]
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is showing a pre-market increase of 0.9%. Initial Jobless Claims reported at 228,000, slightly below expectations, signaling a stable labor market. Nonfarm Productivity for the first quarter remained unchanged at -0.8%, while Unit Labor Costs rose by 5.7%, exceeding forecasts. In trade developments, the U.S.-UK trade pact will maintain a 10% tariff, and the EU is considering tariffs on €95 billion of U.S. goods. Social media discussions highlighted a bullish sentiment around SPY, particularly following Donald Trump's hint at a "major" trade deal. Additionally, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.4%. The top contributors to SPY's performance included NVIDIA, Google, and Amazon, with notable movements in their stock prices. The broader S&P 500 Index is experiencing an increase of approximately 1.0%, driven by anticipation of trade announcements and stable interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

APP | +14.0% | +16.0B
Applovin Corp | Application Software
Applovin Corp reported first quarter 2025 revenue of $1.48 billion, exceeding the FactSet estimate of $1.38 billion. The company achieved an adjusted EPS of $1.67, surpassing the expected $1.43. Notably, advertising revenue surged by 71% year-over-year to $1.16 billion, constituting 78% of total revenues. Following the earnings announcement, the stock experienced significant movement, with a nearly 12% increase initially, and later a reported 30% rise shortly after the report. Analysts from JEFF raised their price target to $530, while Wells Fargo and BTIG increased their targets to $405 and $471, respectively. Additionally, Applovin entered into an agreement to sell its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for $400 million, receiving a 20% equity stake in return. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2025. Applovin's net income for Q1 rose by 144% year-over-year to $576 million, with a repurchase of $1.2 billion in Class A shares.

ARM | -8.0% | -9.5B
Arm Holdings PLC | Semiconductors
Arm Holdings PLC has seen a significant decline in its stock price following recent earnings announcements. Analysts have adjusted their price targets downward, with Guggenheim lowering its target from 180 to 147, RAJA from 175 to 140, and HSBC from 115 to 95, all while maintaining positive ratings. In its fiscal Q4 results, Arm reported a profit of 210 million, down from 224 million the previous year, and adjusted earnings per share of 0.55, exceeding expectations. Nevertheless, the company's guidance for Q1 adjusted EPS of 0.30 to 0.38 fell short of the consensus estimate of 0.42. The firm reported revenues of 1.241 billion, surpassing estimates, but projected first-quarter revenue between 1 billion and 1.1 billion and full-year adjusted EPS forecast of 1.56 to 1.64, both below analyst expectations. Following these announcements, Arm's stock dropped significantly in after-hours trading.

MELI | +8.3% | +10.4B
MercadoLibre Inc | Broadline Retail
MercadoLibre, Inc. reported strong first-quarter financial results for 2025, with a net profit of 494 million, exceeding analyst expectations of 420.9 million. Revenue reached 5.9 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of 5.52 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 37%. Income from operations increased by 45% to 763 million. Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) rose by 17% year-over-year to 13.3 billion, with unique buyers increasing by 25% to nearly 67 million. The fintech segment also performed well, with monthly active users growing by 31% to 64 million. Social media buzz highlights the positive reception of these earnings, noting that the earnings per share (EPS) came in at 9.74, compared to the expected 8.27. Total Payment Volume (TPV) rose by 43% year-over-year to 58.3 billion, further emphasizing the company's robust growth trajectory in e-commerce and fintech sectors.

FTNT | -7.4% | -5.6B
Fortinet Inc | Systems Software
Fortinet Inc reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, revealing revenues of 1.54 billion, matching analyst expectations. The adjusted EPS was 0.58, exceeding the estimated 0.53. The adjusted operating margin stood at a record 34%. Guidance for the second quarter indicates expected revenues between 1.59 billion and 1.65 billion, while full-year revenue projections range from 6.65 billion to 6.85 billion. Despite these results, shares declined approximately 7.7%. Baird analyst Shrenik Kothari lowered the price target on Fortinet to 108 from 113, maintaining a Neutral rating. Social media discussions highlighted a 14% year-over-year revenue increase and an 18% rise in Unified SASE billings, which now represent 25% of total business, despite some users labeling the earnings report as a "revenue miss."

SHOP | -8.5% | -9.5B
Shopify Inc | Internet Services & Infrastructure
Shopify Inc reported its Q1 earnings, revealing revenues of $2.36 billion, slightly surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.33 billion. Operating income fell to $203 million, significantly below the expected $437 million, leading to a net loss of $682 million. The results triggered a negative market reaction, with shares declining approximately 6.9%. Gross merchandise volume for the quarter reached $75 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. Looking ahead, Shopify anticipates Q2 revenue growth in the mid-20s percentage range year-over-year, while gross profit dollars are expected to grow at a high-teens percentage rate. Following the earnings announcement, Shopify's stock experienced a notable drop within an hour.

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